Making sense of MMA's heavyweight mess

Just over a year ago, there was a sense of order among MMA’s heavyweight pecking order. Randy Couture had just upset Tim Sylvia to become the UFC Heavyweight Champion. While this was surprising given Couture’s age and time away from competition, Sylvia had always been seen as a limited and vulnerable fighter despite his massive size. Fans had grown tired of his “fighting not to lose� tactics and were happy to see the belt around the waist of the popular Couture. The win also appeared to set up a sure-fire moneymaking match-up between Couture and UFC newcomer Mirko “Cro Cop� Filipovic. Fresh from winning the PRIDE Open Weight Grand Prix in impressive fashion, Cro Cop had little trouble dispatching his first UFC opponent. The wheels were in motion for what could have been a historically lucrative match-up for the UFC championship.

Meanwhile, the man considered by most to be the top heavyweight in the world, Fedor Emelianenko, was weighing his “post-PRIDE� offers as MMA’s most sought after free agent. Fedor had last fought on New Years Eve, winning an impressive submission victory over rugged Mark Hunt. At that point, it appeared so simple as to almost seem scripted – Fedor would eventually sign a deal with the UFC, using the Japanese K-1 organization for negotiating leverage and to get his price up. After a tune-up match or two to get used to fighting in the UFC “octagon,� he would fight the winner of the Mirko/Couture matchup. The UFC would make a lot of money, and in the process, the MMA world would finally get an “undisputed� world heavyweight champion.

The wheels started to fall off for this scenario when Mirko Cro Cop was upset by Gabriel Gonzaga, but it by no means ended there. In the past year, we saw the UFC bungle their purchase of PRIDE, followed by the UFC bungling the signing of Fedor Emelianenko. That was followed by Fedor signing with the upstart M-1 group out of Russia, which was followed by him no longer being signed by M-1 and the most recent revelations that he never actually had a contract with them in the first place. UFC heavyweight champion Randy Couture vacated his title and quit the organization in a contract dispute fueled largely by the frustration from the bungled Fedor negotiations. Stirring the pot even further were new players, including Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban and a partnership between Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions and Affliction Clothing. Over in Japan, two new organizations debuted with one – DREAM – being considered by many as the second coming of PRIDE.

On top of all of that, throw in the emergence of YouTube street fighter turned MMA competitor Kimbo Slice as perhaps the most popular heavyweight of the bunch with casual fans. His popularity enabled EliteXC to leapfrog the UFC and sign the first primetime network TV deal for a MMA organization. Brock Lesnar made the jump from the WWE to the UFC, though he lost his organization debut to submission specialist Frank Mir. More recently, another WWE performer, Bobby Lashley, has been trying to make the jump, as well.

Basically, things are a mess at this point and there is little hope in the short-term for any semblance of order to be restored. Perhaps the only fortuitous thing to come out of this chaotic year was Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera winning the UFC Interim Heavyweight title over Tim Sylvia. The fact that neither had really done anything to justify being in contention for the title, other than be among the few credible heavyweights left in the organization, is beside the point. Sylvia has since left for a new promotion—Adrenaline MMA—which is basically the American end of the M-1 Global organization that either did or didn’t have Fedor under contract until recently. 

So let’s examine where things stand now starting with Randy Couture. Couture and the UFC have sued each other and he has signed a conditional contract with the aforementioned Mark Cuban to go into effect when it is determined that his UFC contract is up.

Fedor Emelianenko is once again a free agent, though has agreed to at least one fight with the new promotion started by Affliction Clothing. Word is that they are willing to talk business with anyone who wants to, and that is significant since there is another rumor afoot that the UFC is trying to work out a one-fight deal with Fedor to fight Randy Couture as part of an agreement settling their legal issues. In turn, that is significant since the Affliction group has indicated that they would be open to doing business with a third party willing to promote Fedor (obviously for a hefty “promoters feeâ€�). A scenario where Fedor would fight Couture under the auspices of the UFC is unlikely—particularly in light of Couture’s own pessimistic assessment of ever fighting in the Octagon again—but not out of the realm of possibility. Actually, with so much chaos at hand I’d probably believe it if someone told me Riddick Bowe was coming out of retirement to fight Brock Lesnar in a fight to be promoted by Donald Trump.

The question that must then be asked is, “What does it matter?� Many among the MMA cognoscenti are considering dropping Fedor from his #1 heavyweight ranking due to his relative inactivity over the past eighteen months. Since beating Mark Hunt, he has only fought Matt Lindland – a hell of a fighter, but a natural middleweight – and Korean kickboxer Choi Hong-Man, who had little experience in MMA and was more of a physical freak show at over 7’0� tall, rather than legit opponent. If the Fedor/Couture fight does not happen soon, it may end up having as little relevance as the recent Roy Jones/Felix Trinidad bout.

The UFC heavyweight roster got even more barren with the loss of Sylvia as well as Mirko Cro Cop, who returned to Japan to fight for the DREAM promotion. Andrei Arlovski, who seems to have lost his killer instinct and is not a top priority for the Zuffa camp, is also reportedly on his way out.   Brandon Vera has potential, but needs to return to form following a loss to Tim Sylvia, and Brock Lesnar definitely has potential, but is at least a couple of years away from being considered a top heavyweight. MMA insiders are big on the prospects of Cain Velesquez, who looked impressive in his Octagon debut at UFC 83, but its important to keep in mind that was only his third professional MMA bout. He’s got unlimited upside potential, but is a few years away from being championship material.

And the final wild card in this mix is the fighter who I am really close to elevating to #1 in the world status – Josh Barnett. Barnett was forced into inactivity due to the PRIDE demise and Dana White’s unwillingness to let personal drama take a backseat to signing the best fighters. He has stayed active in Japanese pro wrestling and returned to MMA competition recently, defeating judo legend Hidehiko Yoshida by submission.  He’s scheduled to fight at World Victory Road’s “Sengoku 2â€� card in Tokyo on May 18^th. Barnett has split two fights with current UFC interim champ “Minotauroâ€� Nogueira, and with Fedor inactive, is as dominant as anyone currently in the sport.

From the looks of things, the MMA heavyweight scene is going to get messier before it gets any clearer. At the very least, we can hope that the process of restoring order to the chaos will result in entertaining bouts between top fighters, and that supremacy will be earned in the ring and not in the courtroom or boardroom.