Heresy? Tim Sylvia can beat Fedor

Tim Sylvia can beat Fedor Emelianenko. In fact, I think he’s got a better chance of ‘shocking the world’ than any opponent that the Russian fighting god has ever faced.

Just a couple of years ago this assertion would have bordered on the absurd. Fedor Emelianenko was PRIDE heavyweight champion, Tim Sylvia was UFC heavyweight champion but their stature in the MMA world was markedly different. Emelianenko was considered a cut above even the best heavyweights in the world like Josh Barnett, Mirko Cro Cop and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Few even questioned the fact that Fedor was not only the best heavyweight on the planet, but the “pound for pound� best MMA fighter on the planet—if not the legitimate “baddest man walking the face of the earth�. He’d run roughshod over the class of the Japanese MMA scene, beating all of the top contenders (except Barnett, whom he’s never fought), beating imported kickboxers like Gary Goodridge and fighters who more closely resembled freak show refugees (6’4� 400 lb part time reggae club bouncer Zuluzino, whom he KO’d in one punch). Perhaps nothing characterized Fedor’s dominance more than a title defense against tough veteran Kevin Randleman in 2004. Shortly after the fight started Randleman took Fedor’s back and suplexed him, dropping on his head. It’s a gruesome sight and if you didn’t know better you’d have guessed that Fedor left the ring immobilized on a board. Guess again—Fedor took about 30 seconds to shake off a blow that looks like it would kill a normal man, then quickly reverses Randleman’s mount for an armbar submission. Elapsed time—1:33 of the first round. Based on this fight Fedor seemed almost impervious to pain.

Sylvia, on the other hand, never even established dominance over Andrei Arlovski, let alone the UFC. He had regained the title from Andrei Arlovski as the two men split a pair of short but exciting slugfests. He would then defend the title in a boring affair that saw both men stand and throw tentative jabs at each other for five excruciating rounds. Sylvia’s jab landed more often, which enabled him to win a unanimous decision. Another boring defense against Jeff Monson followed, and when Sylvia finally dropped the title in March of 2007 to Randy Couture the UFC management’s sigh of relief could be heard all over the Las Vegas valley. Sylvia’s “comeback� fight was a unanimous decision victory over Brandon Vera, and his UFC tenure ended with a submission loss to Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera. While champion Dana White publically backed Sylvia, but for whatever reason the fans never took to him. He did enjoy a bit of “badass� respect for awhile when he lost via armbar to Frank Mir in 2004, letting Mir break his arm rather than tap. That didn’t last long, however, and eventually his boring fight style and quiet personality turned fans against him.

The MMA world has changed drastically in two short years, and now Tim Sylvia and Fedor Emelianenko will meet in Dallas, TX on July 19^th at an event promoted by the Affliction Clothing company. That’s not the only thing that has changed—I’m now of the opinion that the much maligned Tim Sylvia can do what no one else has and defeat Fedor. In fact, while I won’t go so far as to call it a “lock� I will suggest that Sylvia might have a 50/50 chance of emerging the victor.

So why the change in opinion? There’s a variety of factors, most concerning Fedor’s activities during the past two years. Sylvia, for better or worse, is essentially the same fighter he’s always been. Fedor, meanwhile, has been relatively inactive during the past two years. More significantly, he hasn’t fought a legitimate heavyweight since defeating Mark Hunt on 12/31/06. Since then he’s fought Matt Lindland, who’s a first rate fighter but a natural middleweight. He also fought 7’4� Korean kickboxer Choi Hong-Man on 12/31/07. Many suggested that this fight shouldn’t take place, and that it was such a one sided matchup that there’s no way it would have been sanctioned in the US (for the same reason that the Nevada State Athletic Commission put the kibosh on a proposed Butterbean/Mark Hunt matchup at PRIDE’s inaugural US event). Although Choi is an experienced kickboxer, heading into the Fedor matchup he’d only fought once under MMA rules. Fortunately, he emerged from the fight unscathed losing via armbar early in the first round.

One of the fascinating things about fight sports is how weaknesses of even a dominant competitor can be incrementally exposed. A fighter may have some minor struggles with one opponent, but those struggles can create a blueprint for victory that subsequent foes can take advantage of. Additionally, even the best fighters have opponents that are just a bad matchup for them—Oscar De La Hoya has Sugar Shane Mosely, Mosely had Vernon Forrest and Forrest’s 2 career losses have come almost inexplicably to limited Nicaraguan brawler Ricardo Mayorga. The easy way to explain this phenomenon is that some fighters simply “have the number� of certain opponents, but that’s much too simplistic and a deeper examination usually reveals a distinct characteristic responsible for one fighter’s dominance over another.

While the victory over the Korean behemoth Choi looked dominant on paper, the reality is that Fedor struggled briefly with the height and reach of his opponent. Even though Choi clearly didn’t have a clue how to defend takedowns and submissions, he was able to use his size to frustrate Fedor. His reach enabled him to connect with several punches, with the Russian’s severely reddened face afterwards emphasizing their effectiveness. In the end, Choi’s utter inexperience with MMA rules sealed his fate but even in just over 90 seconds some possible vulnerability in Fedor’s “armor� were revealed.

Tim Sylvia doesn’t have anywhere near the foundation in martial arts that Fedor does, but he does a few things very well. He uses his 6’8� height and 80�+ reach to exceptional advantage. His technical boxing aptitude is particularly solid by MMA standards. Under the tutelage of Pat Miletich he’s developed superior takedown defenses and is showing a greater degree of comfort in ground fighting. Ironically, his greatest liability in the UFC may be his greatest advantage here—he’s very good about “fighting within his abilities� and sticking to a fight plan. The crafty Miletich will send Sylvia in with a well developed strategy, and it’ll be executed to the letter. I’d imagine that you’ll see a strategy much like the one he employed in the Jeff Monson fight. Monson, who’s a human bulldozer but shorter than the average heavyweight at 5’9�, ate jab after jab looking for takedown opportunities. When he’d shoot in for the takedown, Sylvia would sprawl to safety or score with power punches. While Monson may not be the all around fighter that Fedor is, he’s on a short list of the best grapplers in the world. Sylvia’s height and takedown defenses completely neutralized his weapons and the champion won a unanimous decision. It might not have been the most entertaining fight, but Sylvia’s gameplan gave him the best chance of winning and he executed perfectly.

While the height disparity between Fedor and Sylvia isn’t as great as between Sylvia and Monson or Fedor and Choi, it is still significant. “The Maine-iac� will enjoy an 8� height advantage and a reach advantage that borders on the ridiculous. Fedor will have trouble hitting such a tall target, and Sylvia could frustrate him with his powerful jab. If he can avoid the Sambo specialist’s takedowns—no small feat, to be sure—Sylvia has the physical stature and the striking skills to jab his way to a decision. 

There are also some intangibles at play here: this fight isn’t particularly important to Fedor in the “big picture�. He’s looking toward an eventual fight with Randy Couture, and a more likely fight on New Year’s Eve in Japan against Mirko Cro Cop. Sports handicappers call this a “lookahead situation�, and it can be a dangerous spot for a favorite that’s not fully focused on the task at hand. For Sylvia, meanwhile, this is clearly the most important fight of his career. A win here would validate his career, silence the critics and he’d achieve something that no one else in the sport—let alone anyone in the UFC—has ever done by beating the “unbeatable�. As of now, I’ve not heard any confirmation of whether this fight will be in a ring or in a cage—my guess is that Affliction hasn’t figured it out either. If the fight takes place in a cage, its another significant advantage for Sylvia. As the struggles of the PRIDE vets in the UFC have shown, fighting in a cage is a drastically different game and Fedor has never had that experience.

No fighter is unbeatable. If Tim Sylvia comes to Dallas with a fight plan that allows him to leverage his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses he’s got a very good chance of winning. Obviously, even with the best strategy Fedor Emelianenko is a handful so victory isn’t guaranteed. On the other hand, while the world may be shocked should Tim Sylvia become the first man to legitimately defeat Fedor I most definitely won’t be.