Tim Sylvia can beat Fedor Emelianenko.Ā In fact, I think heās got a better chance of
āshocking the worldā than any opponent that the Russian fighting god has ever
faced.
Just a couple of years ago this assertion would have
bordered on the absurd.Ā Fedor
Emelianenko was PRIDE heavyweight champion, Tim Sylvia was UFC heavyweight
champion but their stature in the MMA world was markedly different.Ā Emelianenko was considered a cut above even
the best heavyweights in the world like Josh Barnett, Mirko Cro Cop and Antonio
Rodrigo Nogueira.Ā Few even questioned
the fact that Fedor was not only the best heavyweight on the planet, but the
āpound for poundā best MMA fighter on the planetāif not the legitimate ābaddest
man walking the face of the earthā.Ā Heād run roughshod over the class of the Japanese MMA scene, beating all
of the top contenders (except Barnett, whom heās never fought), beating
imported kickboxers like Gary Goodridge and fighters who more closely resembled
freak show refugees (6ā4ā 400 lb part time reggae club bouncer Zuluzino, whom
he KOād in one punch).Ā Perhaps nothing
characterized Fedorās dominance more than a title defense against tough veteran
Kevin Randleman in 2004.Ā Shortly after
the fight started Randleman took Fedorās back and suplexed him, dropping on his
head.Ā Itās a gruesome sight and if you
didnāt know better youād have guessed that Fedor left the ring immobilized on a
board.Ā Guess againāFedor took about 30
seconds to shake off a blow that looks like it would kill a normal man, then
quickly reverses Randlemanās mount for an armbar submission.Ā Elapsed timeā1:33 of the first round.Ā Based on this fight Fedor seemed almost impervious
to pain.
Sylvia, on the other hand, never even established dominance over
Andrei Arlovski, let alone the UFC.Ā He
had regained the title from Andrei Arlovski as the two men split a pair of
short but exciting slugfests.Ā He would
then defend the title in a boring affair that saw both men stand and throw
tentative jabs at each other for five excruciating rounds.Ā Sylviaās jab landed more often, which enabled
him to win a unanimous decision.Ā Another
boring defense against Jeff Monson followed,Ā and when Sylvia finally dropped the title in March of 2007 to Randy
Couture the UFC managementās sigh of relief could be heard all over the Las
Vegas valley.Ā Sylviaās ācomebackā fight
was a unanimous decision victory over Brandon Vera, and his UFC tenure ended
with a submission loss to Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera.Ā While champion Dana White publically backed
Sylvia, but for whatever reason the fans never took to him.Ā He did enjoy a bit of ābadassā respect for
awhile when he lost via armbar to Frank Mir in 2004, letting Mir break his arm
rather than tap.Ā That didnāt last long,
however, and eventually his boring fight style and quiet personality turned
fans against him.
The MMA world has changed drastically in two short years,
and now Tim Sylvia and Fedor Emelianenko will meet in Dallas, TX on July 19th
at an event promoted by the Affliction Clothing company.Ā Thatās not the only thing that has
changedāIām now of the opinion that the much maligned Tim Sylvia can do what no
one else has and defeat Fedor.Ā In fact,
while I wonāt go so far as to call it a ālockā I will suggest that Sylvia might
have a 50/50 chance of emerging the victor.
So why the change in opinion?Ā Thereās a variety of factors, most concerning
Fedorās activities during the past two years.Ā Sylvia, for better or worse, is essentially the same fighter heās always
been.Ā Fedor, meanwhile, has been
relatively inactive during the past two years.Ā More significantly, he hasnāt fought a legitimate heavyweight since
defeating Mark Hunt on 12/31/06.Ā Since
then heās fought Matt Lindland, whoās a first rate fighter but a natural
middleweight.Ā He also fought 7ā4ā Korean
kickboxer Choi Hong-Man on 12/31/07.Ā Many suggested that this fight shouldnāt take place, and that it was
such a one sided matchup that thereās no way it would have been sanctioned in
the US (for the same reason that the Nevada State Athletic Commission put the
kibosh on a proposed Butterbean/Mark Hunt matchup at PRIDEās inaugural US
event).Ā Although Choi is an experienced
kickboxer, heading into the Fedor matchup heād only fought once under MMA
rules.Ā Fortunately, he emerged from the
fight unscathed losing via armbar early in the first round.
One of the fascinating things about fight sports is how
weaknesses of even a dominant competitor can be incrementally exposed.Ā A fighter may have some minor struggles with
one opponent, but those struggles can create a blueprint for victory that
subsequent foes can take advantage of.Ā Additionally, even the best fighters have opponents that are just a bad
matchup for themāOscar De La Hoya has Sugar Shane Mosely, Mosely had Vernon Forrest
and Forrestās 2 career losses have come almost inexplicably to limited
Nicaraguan brawler Ricardo Mayorga.Ā The
easy way to explain this phenomenon is that some fighters simply āhave the
numberā of certain opponents, but thatās much too simplistic and a deeper
examination usually reveals a distinct characteristic responsible for one
fighterās dominance over another.
While the victory over the Korean behemoth Choi looked
dominant on paper, the reality is that Fedor struggled briefly with the height
and reach of his opponent.Ā Even though
Choi clearly didnāt have a clue how to defend takedowns and submissions, he was
able to use his size to frustrate Fedor.Ā His reach enabled him to connect with several punches, with the
Russianās severely reddened face afterwards emphasizing their
effectiveness.Ā In the end, Choiās utter
inexperience with MMA rules sealed his fate but even in just over 90 seconds
some possible vulnerability in Fedorās āarmorā were revealed.
Tim Sylvia doesnāt have anywhere near the foundation in
martial arts that Fedor does, but he does a few things very well.Ā He uses his 6ā8ā height and 80ā+ reach to
exceptional advantage.Ā His technical
boxing aptitude is particularly solid by MMA standards.Ā Under the tutelage of Pat Miletich heās developed
superior takedown defenses and is showing a greater degree of comfort in ground
fighting.Ā Ironically, his greatest
liability in the UFC may be his greatest advantage hereāheās very good about
āfighting within his abilitiesā and sticking to a fight plan.Ā The crafty Miletich will send Sylvia in with
a well developed strategy, and itāll be executed to the letter.Ā Iād imagine that youāll see a strategy much
like the one he employed in the Jeff Monson fight.Ā Monson, whoās a human bulldozer but shorter
than the average heavyweight at 5ā9ā, ate jab after jab looking for takedown
opportunities.Ā When heād shoot in for
the takedown, Sylvia would sprawl to safety or score with power punches.Ā While Monson may not be the all around
fighter that Fedor is, heās on a short list of the best grapplers in the
world.Ā Sylviaās height and takedown
defenses completely neutralized his weapons and the champion won a unanimous
decision.Ā It might not have been the
most entertaining fight, but Sylviaās gameplan gave him the best chance of
winning and he executed perfectly.
While the height disparity between Fedor and Sylvia isnāt as
great as between Sylvia and Monson or Fedor and Choi, it is still
significant.Ā āThe Maine-iacā will enjoy
an 8ā height advantage and a reach advantage that borders on the
ridiculous.Ā Fedor will have trouble
hitting such a tall target, and Sylvia could frustrate him with his powerful
jab.Ā If he can avoid the Sambo specialistās
takedownsāno small feat, to be sureāSylvia has the physical stature and the
striking skills to jab his way to a decision.Ā
There are also some intangibles at play here:Ā this fight isnāt particularly important to
Fedor in the ābig pictureā.Ā Heās looking
toward an eventual fight with Randy Couture, and a more likely fight on New
Yearās Eve in Japan against Mirko Cro Cop.Ā Sports handicappers call this a ālookahead situationā, and it can be a
dangerous spot for a favorite thatās not fully focused on the task at hand.Ā For Sylvia, meanwhile, this is clearly the
most important fight of his career.Ā A
win here would validate his career, silence the critics and heād achieve
something that no one else in the sportālet alone anyone in the UFCāhas ever
done by beating the āunbeatableā.Ā As of
now, Iāve not heard any confirmation of whether this fight will be in a ring or
in a cageāmy guess is that Affliction hasnāt figured it out either.Ā If the fight takes place in a cage, its
another significant advantage for Sylvia.Ā As the struggles of the PRIDE vets in the UFC have shown, fighting in a
cage is a drastically different game and Fedor has never had that experience.
No fighter is unbeatable.Ā If Tim Sylvia comes to Dallas with a fight plan that allows him to
leverage his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses heās got a very good
chance of winning.Ā Obviously, even with
the best strategy Fedor Emelianenko is a handful so victory isnāt
guaranteed.Ā On the other hand, while the
world may be shocked should Tim Sylvia become the first man to legitimately
defeat Fedor I most definitely wonāt be.